The run up to the Oscars is typically a race for experts to form a narrative around favourites and what these represent for the future of films. This narrative has been slowly building to declare Everything Everywhere All at Once a juggernaut,
And then the BAFTAs happened.
The BAFTAs have traditionally been the best bellwether for the Oscars - albeit with a slight favouritism to British films and actors. A similar make up of voting panels and the proximity of the events tends to mean a successful night at the BAFTAs will lead to similar accolades from the Academy.
But instead of anointing EEAAO as the winner-in-waiting, the BAFTAs threw a curveball handing 7 gongs to All Quiet on the Western Front. The narratives began to develop - could we see Netflix finally win the Best Picture Oscar? Would a second foreign language winner in 4 years make the Oscars truly global?
My models are sceptical at AQOTWF's chances. Firstly, outside of the BAFTAs it has hardly appeared in other award ceremonies - either as a winner or nominees. Secondly, the BAFTAs have slowly diverged from the Oscars over the last few years - to the point that last year there was no overlap between the nominees for Best Actress across the 2 awards.
There are signs however that AQOTWF may play a role at the Oscars. It has picked up 9 nominations - fewer than the 14 in the BAFTAs, but way more than the Golden Globes (1), Critics Choice (1) and Satellite Awards (0) combined.
So, the main thing to look out for is whether All Quiet on the Western Front continues its late emergence, or will the unlikely favourite, Everything Everywhere All At Once prove the BAFTAs an anomaly. And with that background, here are my model's predictions.
Academy Award Winner Predictions - 2023
BEST PICTURE
Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Aside from the BAFTAs - all signs point to the the multiverse, genre-jumping Everything Everywhere All at Once, and there isn't even a clear second favourite in the data.
BEST DIRECTOR
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Historically, Best Director and Best Picture seldom deviated. That has changed in recent years (remember La La Land and Moonlight), but the model thinks The Daniels achieve the double here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Everything, Everywhere All At Once
You would think that the uniqueness of EEAAO's story would be enough to guarantee this award, but there is a lot of love for The Banshees of Inisherin, particularly from the writing guilds. The model likes the universal appeal of EEAAO here.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Women Talking
The only reason to go against the model prediction here is the relative obscurity of Women Talking. The only other possibility here would be All Quiet on the Western Front. AQOTWF probably needs to pick up this award if it's going to get best picture.
BEST ACTOR
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
This has been a close race between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler. Fraser started awards season strong, Butler then seemed to gain ground, but Fraser's recent WGA win tips the model in his favour.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Tar)
Cate Blanchett is the clear favourite here, though Michelle Yeah has an outside shot. This will rely on a true groundswell of support for EEAAO, a sense of recognition for her career is well overdue. There has also been a lot of talk that the fallout of Andrea Risenborough's surprise nomination potentially could be leading to a win to justify the nomination. With no other major nominations, the model gives her no chance - but it is built on the assumption that no winner truly comes out of nowhere.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan
The return to acting of Ke Huy Quan is the real heart-warming story coming out of awards season. Barry Keoghan has an outside shot, but Quan is the likely winner here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis
The most uncertain acting race. Arguments can be made for Angela Bassett, Kerry Condon or Jamie Lee Curtis. The model leans towards JLC - if EEAAO has a big night, that maybe enough to shift the race in her direction.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
The lack of standout Pixar film here slightly muddies the water, but name recognition is likely to sway this del Toro's way.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
All Quiet on the Western Front
Interestingly the model here struggles to pick between AQONTF and Argentina, 1985, and it sees them both as winners. AQOTWF's Best Picture nominations sways the prediction in its favour.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All the Beauty and the Blood
It is between All the Beauty and the Blood and Navalny. The model predicts ATBATB, but I haven't yet introduced the PGA award for Documentary into the model currently, an award Navalny won. But whilst we should acknowledge gaps in the model, it's dangerous to try and overcompensate based on gut feelings.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Babylon
Babylon hasn't made the expected impact on award season, but it should pick up a couple of technical awards, including Best Score.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Naatu Naatu (RRR)
There has been significant consternation that RRR missed on nominations across other major categories, but it should pick up Best Song as a consolation prize.
BEST SOUND
Top Gun: Maverick
Top Gun is the slight favourite here, but if AQOTWF is to have a big night, this will be one of the awards that it picks up.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Babylon
The second of 2 potential awards for Babylon, though Avatar could play spoiler.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Elvis
The model struggles most with this award. It leans towards Elvis, but Empire of Light could be a wildcard pick for Academy favourite Roger Deakins.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Elvis
Elvis was famous for his hairstyle, so logically this pick makes sense.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The model predicts Marvel's one annual win here in the technical categories - though remember - Elvis was also famous for his clothes.
BEST FILM EDITING
Everything Everywhere All at Once
I have no idea what makes good film editing, but certainly EEAO has a lot of edits. The model agrees with this prediction - but probably for different reasons.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of the Water
I'm not sure why Avatar: The Way of Water is nominated for Best Picture if it doesn't pick up this award.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Everything Everywhere All At Once - 6 WINS
Elvis - 2 WINS
Babylon - 2 WINS
All Quiet on the Western Front - 1 WIN
All the Beauty and the Blood - 1 WIN
Avatar: The Way of Water - 1 WIN
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 1 WIN
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio - 1 WIN
RRR - 1 WIN
Tar - 1 WIN
Top Gun: Maverick - 1 WIN
The Whale - 1 WIN
Women Talking - 1 WIN
