The 96th Academy Awards looks to be the natural conclusion to Barbieheimer - the cultural phenomenon, that according to some people, single single-handedly saved Cinema. Certainly, it was a moment that transcended into daily discourse and monopolised cinema screens (79% of US cinema tickets sold were to 1 of these 2 films in their opening week). And the Oscars in their traditional lagging sense is likely to award both films this weekend over 6 months after their release – with my model predicting 10 wins between the pair.
When the nominations for the Oscars were announced there was quite a bit of murmuring that the Academy had played it safe, particularly with Oppenheimer leading Barbie in nominations (13 to 8). Certainly, the omissions of both Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie (both previous nominees) seemed odd, but this masks how unusual it is to have films this popular nominated for major awards. The last picture nominee to top the worldwide box office as Barbie did, was Toy Story 3 back in 2010. The last Best Picture winner to crack the top 10 worldwide box office was Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King back in 2003.
There has long been plenty of discussion about the Oscars declining TV ratings and whether this fall in popularity is due to the focus on smaller, niche films such as Moonlight, CODA and Nomadland. This year may indicate whether nominating more notable films reverses the downward trend in viewership. They better hope so, because, unlike some previous years, there isn’t a huge amount of uncertainty about the major winners, with the more interesting award races sitting within the technical section. To see where we currently stand with each race, read on to find the model’s predictions of winners in each category.
Academy Award Winner Predictions - 2024
BEST PICTURE
Oppenheimer
The race for Best Picture can occasionally through up a surprise winner (such as Moonlight or Parasite), particularly since the number of nominees has been expanded from 5 to up to 10. Whilst the winner of this award can be an upset, all winners share one of 2 characteristics. Either it has won a lot of other major film awards, or it has plenty of overall nominations across the ceremony. Oppenheimer has essentially swept the board so far, so that leads us to the number of nominations – with Barbie or Poor Things the only challengers who could mount a very unlikely upset.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
If Best Picture is already a done deal, then Best Director is even more so.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall
Traditionally the WGA has been the best predictor of the screenplay awards, but they have moved the ceremony back to April, meaning that we have lost an important data point. This coupled with the unusual criteria used to define “Original” – e.g., Barbie is in Adapted, makes this a slightly uncertain category. The Academy has historically given this award to non-English language screenplays, and I think it repeats this with Anatomy of a Fall.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction
In a normal year you would expect Oppenheimer to have this locked up, but all the recent momentum seems to be with American Fiction, including a USC Scripter award. A week ago this would have counted as a major upset, but changing betting odds suggest that American Fiction is now the consensus decision.
BEST ACTOR
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
The first of the awards that isn’t completely locked up. All recent momentum has seemed to be with Cillian Murphy, but there is an outside chance for Paul Giamatti. The Holdovers has been classed as a comedy where awards split between comedy and drama, so these 2 haven’t gone head-to-head as much as you might think.
BEST ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actress is even more of a 2-horse race than Best Actor, with the award going to either Emma Stone or Lily Gladstone. The model has both as a winner as they both have solid revenues – helped by again swimming in the separate waters of Drama and Comedy. Here you are trading of between Stone’s BAFTA win, and Gladstone’s SAG award. SAG has got the last 2 winners right,
so we go with Gladstone.
so we go with Gladstone.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer
The Academy has a reputation for handing out awards to someone who is seen as due. See Martin Scorsese, Leonardo DiCaprio and Will Smith, all winning for work that was good but not their finest. This award feels like it sits within this mould – expect Downey to give a likeable and non-controversial acceptance speech.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
This is an open and shut case, Randolph has dominated this category with wins in every major award. Her domination has been so absolute that I have no idea who might even be in second place.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Boy and the Heron
The betting odds favour Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, but I reckon they may finally acknowledge Miyazaki’s contribution to film here. Miyazaki coming out of retirement to finally win an Oscar seems
very on-brand for the Academy.
very on-brand for the Academy.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
The Zone of Interest
The general rule here is that a foreign language film that picks up a lot of nominations in other categories is a good shout for a win. Therefore, this should go to Anatomy of a Fall. However, weird rule quirk – each country can only put forward 1 film for consideration in this category, and France chose not to put forward Anatomy of a Fall, instead selecting The Taste of Things, which didn’t trouble any awards. Speculation is this was because director Justine Triet criticised Macron’s policies on pension reform. Whether or not this is true, a slam dunk Oscar has been lost.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 Days in Mariupol
This category is a mess - the Academy picking films that haven’t even been nominated elsewhere. This could be an absolute crapshoot, but 20 Days in Mariupol seems to have the most traction. The only concern here is whether the subject matter is too close to last year’s winner Navalny.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Oppenheimer
Best Score is often very predictable, and this year is no exception – Oppenheimer adding to its tally here.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
What Am I Made For? - Barbie
This again seems a lock, particularly with the amount of press Billie Eilish and Finneas are doing. This would make Billie Eilish a 2-time Oscar winner. The only way Barbie doesn’t win here is if I’m Just Ken splits the vote.
BEST SOUND
Maestro
The model here says that both Maestro and Zone of Interest qualify as potential winners. If in doubt, use Occam’s Razor. Maestro just sounds like it would have good sound.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
These awards lower down the ballot can sometimes be a victim of votes just selecting the same film for all categories. Therefore, an Oppenheimer win isn’t out of the question, but Barbie should get its second award here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Oppenheimer
Nothing much to say here, would be a complete shock if Oppenheimer lost this.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Poor Things
In another year Poor Things is the juggernaut going into the awards, but it has been outshone by Barbieheimer. It should pick up this award as a consolation.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Poor Things is an option here after winning the BAFTA, but if the Academy feels even a small proportion of the goodwill the public has towards Barbie, it will pick up a 3rd Oscar here.
BEST FILM EDITING
Oppenheimer
I’m not sure the Academy knows how to judge editing after it gave this award to Bohemian Rhapsody a couple of years ago – a film that by all accounts didn’t have the best editing, but likely did have the most edits. I think they go with Oppenheimer here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One
This award tends to go to the biggest blockbuster which isn’t deemed highbrow enough to be seriously considered for other awards. There isn’t an obvious pick here, and the BAFTA (Poor Things) and Critics Choice (Oppenheimer) winners have been left off the nominations list. The model doesn’t see a clear winner but Mission Impossible does have a slight edge.
