The Rugby World Cup is here, 51 days of scrums, mauls, long-range tries and inevitable moaning about Red cards for high tackles. I'm a huge rugby fan and have meant to build a prediction model for a while. I've used results from 10,470 international games since 1871, accounting for home advantage, change in point systems and average points scored by era to create a ranking model that ranks each team in the tournament based on their recent results.
We can get enchanted by the shocks of the last World Cups, with Japan beating South Africa and Uruguay beating Fiji showing that lower ranked teams can upset the odds. However, results show on the whole results tend to go to the better team. Even, in the case of those upsets, you would probably say the best team on the day won. Unlike football, where 1 moment could change the game, Rugby is made up of several point scoring opportunities across 80 minutes. Sure you might get a lucky bounce here or there, but if you are creating fewer opportunities than your opposition, the odds tend to not be in your favour.
So unsurprisingly this model likes the big 4 (South Africa, Ireland, France and New Zealand) for this tournament, with the model giving a whopping 84% chance that the victor comes from this group. However, all these teams, as well as Scotland, are drawn in Groups A & B. The teams that progress from Group A will play a team from Group B. Meaning that at most, only 2 of these teams will get to the semi-final. This does mean that we will get some surprising teams in the semi-finals, whilst conversely potentially making the semi-finals the most predictable weekend of games.
My overall favourite is France. Not because I think they are the best team, but because they have the home-field advantage for every match of the tournament, and they are close enough that this could make the difference. My overall win predictions are below - and underneath is what you can expect from each group.
Group A - 2 Titans but a predictable group
When hosts France were drawn against New Zealand, it seemed an unfair reward for a French team on the up. However, outside of the Kiwis, this is a very easy group - and whoever the teams that progress face in the second round will be a tricky match. Therefore whilst the first game between France and New Zealand will be exciting, it will have very little impact on the overall result of the tournament.
France are my favourites for the tournament. Not because the model thinks they are the best side (it has them 3rd) but because they will benefit from home advantage in each game they play. It's tempting to think the French side peaked with the Grand Slam of 2022, but watching them play over the last yet suggests they have been holding something back for this tournament. Injuries to Ntamack and Willemse might limit their potential, but this is a deep squad which has been focused on this for the last 4 years.
New Zealand are used to going into the World Cup as favourites - but their crown has slipped a little over the last couple of years. Losing to Ireland home and away, and the recent demolition by South Africa at Twickenham means they are not at their best. Performances in the Rugby Championship suggest they still have the potential, and I wouldn't bet against them unlocking this at the World Cup.
Italy will finish 3rd place again. The recent years have been a mix of ups and downs - the good being beating Australia for the first time and breaking the 6 Nations losing streak against Wales in Cardiff. The low was the loss against Georgia. They will have come out of the recent 6 Nations feeling they played below their potential. A good tournament will be comfortable wins against Uruguay and Namibia, whilst keeping it close vs France and New Zealand.
Uruguay were my story of the last World Cup, their win against Fiji and the emotion the team showed afterwards were the most memorable part of the tournament for me. This is a team getting better - qualification was simpler this time round, but they tend to beat who they should beat and lose to teams above them. In 2021 they only lost by 7 points to Italy - they will aim to improve on this and claim a shock win in consecutive World Cups.
Namibia has only played 8 games since the last World Cup - mostly in qualification against worse African teams. This has given the model very little recent information about them. It is probably safe to assume they will still be bottom of the pile (they have never won at the World Cup) but they will be targeting Uruguay as an opportunity to gain their maiden victory.
Group B - 3 into 2 Won't Go
The draw for the Rugby World Cup took place in 2020 based on World Rankings at the time, a bizarre practice 3 years out, heightened by the chaos the pandemic had on the number of games that had actually been played since the last World Cup. This is how we ended up with the IRB's 1st (Ireland), 2nd (South Africa) and 5th (Scotland) best teams in the same group. Only 2 will go through, with the money being on Scotland being the team to miss out.
South Africa are the defending champions and have seemed to go under the radar over the last few months. My rankings actually have them as the number 1 team in the World, their recent 35-7 win against New Zealand (albeit on neutral ground) has allowed them to pip Ireland to the top position on the eve of the tournament. No Handre Pollard means kicking is a slight concern, but their recent innovation of 7 forwards on the bench makes them a terrifying proposition.
Ireland has the IRBs top spot in their World Ranking, a feat that has been achieved by some significant results - a 6 Nations Grand Slam alongside winning a tour against New Zealand in New Zealand. However, Ireland has a significant World Cup curse, having never got past the Quarter Finals. My model doesn't account for curses, so I have them as 3rd favourites to win overall, but does a narrow win against Samoa in their last game, hint at some nerves?
This is probably the strongest Scotland side since the late 80's with the likes of Finn Russell, Duhan Van Der Merwe and Sione Tuipulotu making them a joy to watch. However, they haven't achieved any significant wins (apart from vs. France in one of the warm-ups) which shows where they are, in a no-mans land - one step below the big 4 but comfortably ahead of the rest. They will need to get their first signature win here to progress.
Tonga are a tricky one, results such as their 102-0 loss to New Zealand in 2020 suggest- they aren't very good. However, this result was with a much-weakened team due to the inability of European-based players to fly back to play due to the pandemic. Their squad has been boosted by the relaxation of eligibility criteria (meaning that players can switch nations if they haven't played for the previous country for 3 years) - allowing them to incorporate the likes of Malakai Fekitoa and Charles Piatau. Unlike Samoa, we are yet to see the impact of the influx of talent on results yet.
Romani might be the weakest team in the tournament - they only qualified directly from the European tournament due to Spain fielding an ineligible player (which they also did in 2019 qualifying!). With an ageing squad, and the domestic league in chaos, this might be the last time we see Romania at the tournament for a while.
Group C - The Tightest Group?
Group C lacks the top-tier quality of Groups A and B, but Group C could well be the tightest. It's not out of the realm of possibility that a team could advance with only 2 wins, such is the similarity of the quality of teams in this group. Wales and Australia are arguably the poorest they've been for several years, whilst this may be the strongest Fijian and Georgian teams we have ever seen.
Eddie Jones has an exceptional track record in World Cups, as head coach reaching finals with England and Australia, orchestrating the greatest upset in Rugby with Japan's win over South Africa, and as assistant coach winning it all with South Africa. However, his most recent stint with Australia has started terribly, with Australia losing all 5 games. He has brought a young and inexperienced squad to France, which gives them an air of unpredictability. As their losses have been to quality sides they are the highest-ranked team in the group, but how far they will progress depends on Eddie unlocking some so far hidden potential.
Wales haven't been talked about as much as England, but they have gone through a similar journey. Sacking Wayne Pivac after a disappointing Autumn series, but replacing him with a proven coach in Warren Gatland. In the warm-ups, they shared a 2 game series with England (but won if we were counting aggregate scores) but were comfortably beaten by South Africa. This gives a pretty good idea of where they are. A group stage exit or a scrappy run to the semi-finals are both possibilities for Wales.
Fiji are undoubtedly on the up. The establishment of the Fijian Drua in Super Rugby has created a pathway for young Fijian players to gain experience, with recent results proving the impact. They have just achieved their biggest-ever win (outside of World Cups and 7s) by beating England at Twickenham and will have a very good chance of at least 1 additional scalp. A long way from 2019 when they lost to Uruguay. The last-minute withdrawal of their Fly Half Caleb Muntz could cost them, however.
Ever since he retired, you could almost guarantee that come 6 Nations time, he'd call for Italy to be relegated and replaced by Georgia. Honestly, these often came too early, with Georgia a clear step down on Italy in terms of quality. This could be starting to change, with them beating Italy last year, as well as group mates Wales, in Cardiff. They certainly are not favourites to go through, but they do have a puncher's chance.
Portugal is unlikely to win a game, but this masks their progress as they managed to draw with Georgia in Tbilisi - almost the best possible result in European rugby below the 6 Nations given Georgia's dominance. A young backline with some incredibly talented players, expect them to make a good game against a couple of the better ranked teams, especially if those teams decide to rest players ahead of bigger matches.
Group D - Wither England?
Since reaching the Final in 2019, England's form has been pretty disastrous. They have no top 2 finishes in the last 3 6 Nations and sacked Eddie Jones after a disappointing Autumn series. New coach Steve Borthwick has had less than a year to settle in, but recent results are not encouraging with 3 defeats in warm-ups including a first-ever loss to Fiji. Talk has turned to whether they will fail to get out of the group as in 2015 - however fortunately they find themselves in the easiest group. With the 3rd best team being either a disappointing Japan or an unproven Samoa - England has a 90.2% chance of progressing to the quarter-finals.
Argentina has had an up-and-down World Cup cycle. The highs have been there - beating New Zealand twice (including one in New Zealand). But the consistency has not, with a few heavy losses to Scotland, South Africa and New Zealand in the same time period. Their highs bring them marginally above England in the model's pre-tournament rankings - but if they find form don't rule them out from reaching yet another Semi Final.
Japan were the darlings of their home tournament in 2019, beating Ireland and Scotland on their way to being the first team from Asia to reach the quarter-finals. However they haven't pushed on since 2019, and you feel the gap between them and the traditional Tier 1 nations is widening again. In the recent Pacific Cup, they lost to both Fiji and Samoa, and they are more likely to have the latter happen again in the group than turn over England or Argentina.
Samoa is a hard country to read, and the one that would least surprise me if the model is wrong. Samoa have played a relatively low number of matches since the last World Cup, so they haven't had as much chance to improve their ranking. However, the new eligibility rules have allowed in an influx of quality players such as Steven Luatua, Charlie Faumuina and Christian Leali'ifano which might indicate they are a far more dangerous team than historic results suggest. The first signs of this came in their last warm-up game where they lost by only 4 points to Ireland.
Chile makes up this group. They have shown incredible progress to qualify for this World Cup. In 2019 they lost 71-8 to the USA and 56-0 to Canada, the 2 teams they would then beat to qualify for this year's World Cup. The 4-year transformation has been huge, but the USA and Canada are their only major scalps so far, and registering a single bonus will be an achievement for this team.
