The 97th Academy Awards is without doubt the most unpredictable Oscars in recent years, particularly in the 4 big categories (Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress). Normally at this stage of awards seasons, a couple of narratives tend to have taken hold. This year, nothing consistent has emerged.
The first rumblings of award juggernauts normally start in the early autumn and often focus on well received box office hits. Sometimes these remain favourites all the way through to the Oscars (see last year's Oppenheimer) and sometimes they don’t (e.g. Dune: Part One). This year the archetype is Wicked.
Next, we have the films that pick-up momentum at the start of awards season, with a few big wins and multiple nominations across categories – think Everything, Everywhere, All At Once. This year we have Emilia Pérez, which won the Grand Jury at Cannes, and has 13 Oscar nominations across categories. Done and dusted surely?
Except no, after nominations came out a rapid backlash has massively reduced Emilia Pérez’s chances. What caused this backlash – a perfect combination of accusations of stereotyping (it’s a French film about a Mexican cartel leader), historic problematic tweets by the lead, questionable songs (just search “The Worst Musical Number in a Movie”) and mainly the fact people don’t seem to think it’s very good (currently it sits at 5.5/10 on IMDB).
The lateness of this backlash in the race has therefore left a bit of a void. Anora, The Brutalist and Conclave seem the most likely to capitalise. I’ve used my data model to pick through the mess and here are my predictions.
BEST PICTURE
The Brutalist
So, if the bookies are to be believed, Anora sits as the current favourite. If it does win, it will certainly have one of the weakest resumes in recent times – with the Critic’s Choice Awards being its major victory so far. Conclave is second favourite, having picked up the most recent major award (BAFTA). Both have potential, but my model likes The Brutalist’s wins at the PGA, Golden Globes and Satellite Awards. It also doesn’t count out Emilia Pérez though it's momentum has all but completely gone.
BEST DIRECTOR
Sean Baker (Anora)
IAn interesting anomaly here in that none of the nominees have been nominated before, the first time since 1997. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) has picked up the most trophies so far, but Sean Baker has won the Directors Guild – which has chosen the same winner as 19 out of 21 Oscars.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
Another category without a clear favourite, but as this category contains both Anora and The Brutalist it may act as an early predictor for overall Best Picture. Anora won at the Writers Guild so is a slight favourite. A Real Pain has an outside shot here, and given the unpredictability of this year’s race – don’t be totally surprised if it wins and throws a cat amongst the pigeons early on in the night.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave
The model sees 2 potential winners here – Conclave and The Nickel Boys. The model slightly prefers Conclave, and given the film’s position amongst the bookies as 2ndoverall favourite for Best Picture – it does make sense that it would pick up a win somewhere down ballot.
BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
A 2-horse race between Chalamet and Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Your view here really depends on whether you see the BAFTAs as being the most accurate representation of a post-Pérez world, in which case you lean Brody, or do you lean on the Screen Actors Guild’s choice of Chalamet. Historically SAG has been a slightly better indicator.
BEST ACTRESS
Demi Moore - The Substance
A similar situation to Best Actor here, between Moore (SAG winner) and BAFTA winner Mikey Madison (Anora). As the BAFTAs was really the first thing Demi Moore didn’t win – the model leans in her favour – though Madison’s resume also matches previous winners.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Keiran Culkin - A Real Pain
Another slam dunk here – Culkin seems like the safest lock across all the categories in the Academy Awards.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldana
Finally, something a bit easier to predict. The only hesitation here would be the overall backlash to Emilia Pérez – though it seems to have passed Saldaña by.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Wild Robot
This is really a case of trying to unpick the BAFTA’s British bias. The BAFTA’s gave this award to Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – but the film hasn’t seemed to resonate amongst US voters. The Wild Robot is the safe choice here.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Perez
Best International Film almost always goes to a film that has picked up nominations across other categories. That in theory should lead to an easy win for Emilia Pérez with 12 other nominations. My model predicts it should still win this award, but if the backlash is bigger than predicted – I’m Still Here is next in line.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No Other Land
In typical Oscar’s fashion, it’s gone its own way with nominations for Documentary. None of the nominations have picked up an award that goes the same way as the Oscars more than 50% of the time. No Other Land has picked up the most, and was at least nominated at the BAFTAs so is the reluctant choice here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Another category that seemed like Emilia Pérez’s to lose, but this now seems to have switched to The Brutalist. Wicked’s nomination here is interesting – though how much of the score can be truly classed as original?
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
El Mas - Emilia Perez
The 2 favourites here are both from Emilia Pérez, with El Mas edging out Mi Camino. A lack of a decent alternative means that this award should stick with Pérez.
BEST SOUND
Dune: Part 2
A category that only exists in a few other award ceremonies. Wicked has also picked up wins in this category, but the model prefers Dune.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Wicked
Wicked is the heavy favourite here – though the award can sometimes be swept along with a film dominating multiple categories, so don’t count out The Brutalist or Conclave.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
A category that is normally a lock by this point is still up for grabs. The model likes The Brutalist – but does also like Nosferatu as a wildcard option.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Substance
The Substance is a film that also had a bit of Best Picture of buzz early in the process - but a body horror film was always an unlikely winner. If Demi Moore gets pipped to the post for Best Actress, it should still come away with an award here.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Wicked
Wicked has won this category elsewhere, and is the clear favourite here.
BEST FILM EDITING
Conclave
Another lower ballot category that could follow Best Picture, but the model does like Conclave as a moderate favourite – maybe because there were even more Cardinals left on the cutting room floor.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part 2
The category that reminds us of all the high budget films that didn’t leave a lasting impression on the general public. Did you know that we had both an Alien and a Planet of the Apes film last year? Dune: Part Two was successful and likely picks this award up as well.
